Leading market intelligence provider iDTechEx has provided insights on mobility trends for 20 years. In this time, electric vehicle start-ups have moved from obscurity into some of the world’s most valuable companies, most traditional automakers have committed to an electric future, drivers have been caught sleeping at the wheel of self-driving vehicles, and flying electric taxis have started to leave the pages of science fiction.
Most recently, it picked six mobility trends to watch for in the future.
But what does it all mean for the aftermarket? We added our take.
Electrification is global and happening in all sectors. A decade ago, IDTechEx’s 2011 report ‘bullishly’ predicted 1.5 million battery-electric car sales by 2021 – this turned out to be an underestimate by over half, as China, the US, and Europe all grew their markets last year. The sheer volumes and successes of electric vehicles in the automotive market are driving down costs, creating opportunities for many other mobility sectors.
On the waterways, electric ferry deliveries have boomed to ~80MWh yearly as battery pack costs fell below $600 per kWh, energy densities improved and thermal management innovations vastly increased safety. Similar drivers are pushing forward investment into electric air-taxis, with American Airlines, Virgin Atlantic, United Airlines, UPS and Avolon, having all placed pre-orders. Electrification is not so much unstoppable as inevitable and will continue to play a dominant role in the decarbonization of mobility.
Our take: Yes, electrification is a juggernaut. Even the iconic Zamboni is going electric, but the existing vehicle parc will continue to dominate the repair sector for years past the “EV only” commitment dates of automakers and governments. However, it will also take the aftermarket some time to ramp up skills and production, so now is the time to start laying the foundation.
Autonomous vehicles will transform the automotive industry – again. Just as the industry grapples with massive changes in powertrain technology, IDTechEx expects commercial autonomous cars, or robotaxis, to be market-ready and match or exceed human safety by as early as 2024. Projecting forward current safety data, the implication is autonomous cars will be capable of fulfilling the world’s mobility needs without a single collision before 2050.
As a result, autonomy will have a profound impact on the travel habits of consumers: having removed the highest cost of current popular ride-hailing services – the driver – robotaxis will enable affordable mobility services, driving the market to grow rapidly at 30% CAGR. Private car ownership will become a relic of the past for new generations, and since one autonomous car has the capability to serve multiple people a day, fundamental demand for new cars is expected to fall even as global passenger-miles increase.
Our take: While the idea of the robotaxi make us think of the cartoonish example in “Total Recall,” the idea that autonomous vehicles will find their way more fully into fleet applications is on point (we think). We do not believe that private ownership of vehicles will become a “relic of the past” except where affordability is stretched. Still, those in the service sector should ensure that they develop fleet business to help safeguard against declines in private ownership, and also to build the business for today of course.
Lithium-based batteries will continue to be the great enabler for electrification. Without the popularisation of the Li-ion battery by Sony in the 1990s, electric vehicles would still be the horse that lost the race to the internal combustion engine. Battery technologies are evolving rapidly and there are many important market developments taking place. As battery costs level, the key focus for the industry will be increasing sustainability of raw materials and supply chains whilst ensuring there is still enough supply to meet the huge demand. Later in the decade, a move beyond Li-ion towards the holy grail of solid-state and lithium-metal batteries is critical for a step-change in safety and performance, and to open the door to new applications such as electric long-haul aircraft.
Our take: The remanufacturing of batteries is a fledgling market already, but destined to grow. As with many automotive components that are ripe markets for remanufactured options, it’s good for the environment and good for the customers too. The web is already full of stories of EV owners unhappy with the cost of OEM replacement. One fellow even blew up his BEV in protest. Too bad he never thought to go to the local shop for other options.
Advanced motors and power electronics are key to lowering cost and increasing range. Improving the efficiency of power electronics and electric traction motors is key to either increasing range or downsizing batteries (reducing costs). Two important trends in these areas are market convergence on permanent magnet motors and a transition towards wide bandgap semiconductor devices.
Our take: Range is still a very real issue, and not just in terms of anxiety. All but the longest range BEVs today can leave drivers short especially in colder climes that sap range significantly. BEVs that bump up against 1,000 km range — so that full charges are not required before setting out for a longer journey — are probably necessary to alleviate worries.
Powertrain safety via thermal management will be critical as the market matures. As OEMs scramble towards electrification, battery safety is sometimes missed or not fully realized. This was publicly highlighted in a big way during 2020-2021 thanks to the safety-related recall of GM’s Bolt costing approximately $1.9 billion and they aren’t the only automaker that had EV recalls relating to potential fire risks.
The way in which batteries are designed is evolving at both a cell and pack level. Battery chemistry is evolving with higher nickel cathodes being adopted, LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries making a resurgence and more attention being paid to solid-state batteries. These changes have a profound impact on the requirements around thermal management and materials in EV batteries. Outside the cell, we see OEM’s transitioning towards cell-to-pack designs with announcements from Tesla, Stellantis, BYD, VW and more. This fundamental change in battery pack structure leads to changes in how thermal strategies and materials are incorporated, including thermal interface materials, coolant channels and fire protection.
Whilst much attention is focused on the battery, electric motors and power electronics are literally the driving force behind EVs and present their own thermal management and materials challenges. Permanent magnet motors require a specific operating temperature to avoid damage. Additionally, allowing the copper coils in a motor to get too hot can lead to reduced efficiency or damage to the winding insulation. The silicon carbide transition in power electronics is also presenting a host of package-level thermal challenges to deal with the increased junction temperatures including wire bonding, die-attach, and substrate technologies.
Our take: We certainly don’t like the idea of battery packs bursting into flames, what was on fire today was probably fry-an-egg hot for a while. That’s an inescapable reminder that the EV world is not without it’s service challenges and opportunities for shops equipped to include battery cooling and performance inspection into their offering.
Hydrogen fuel cells are the last piece of the puzzle to decarbonize land transport. While the race is being led by battery electric vehicles, battery solutions can’t always deliver for use cases that require significant range, high loads, brief downtime, and high operational flexibility. For example, long-haul trucking and high milage city bus operations. In addition, while demand is high and outstrips supply, batteries will be prioritized into light-duty sectors where they are most profitable. All this is creating opportunities for fuel cells, and giants like Toyota, Hyundai, GM, and Daimler are continuing to pump millions into improving fuel cell system technology and wider hydrogen infrastructure. Fuel cells have many weaknesses compared with batteries but should not be discarded in heavy-duty segments to help meet climate goals.
Our take: Hydrogen power has seen a number of iterations over the years–as a fuel for ICE and in fuel cell form — but seems destined to be a niche solution not likely to see widespread adoption as has simply failed to capture the zeitgeist of consumers, investors, or governments.