As 2025 winds down, the performance of the Quebec market is emerging as one of the more telling indicators of how the Canadian national picture is shifting—and the comparison to last year is not flattering.

And, while weak new car sales do have notable upsides for the aftermarket–the knock-on effect of an aging vehicle population among them–keeping a watchful eye on how deep any uncertainty runs seems wise.

A lot of what we’re seeing today is, of course, a continuation of so-called “market distortions” consequent to changing ZEV incentives coming home to roost.

Quebec’s late-2024 surge, driven by consumers racing to secure generous incentives before they disappeared, created an inflated baseline that is now weighing heavily on year-over-year results.

According to DesRosiers Automotive Consultants, in October 2025, Quebec posted a 7.9% sales decline compared with the incentive-boosted highs of October 2024.

Year-to-date performance has also slipped 0.5% below the same period last year, signalling that the province’s earlier momentum has cooled.

The inflated Q4 2024 result, rather than signalling durable strength, appears to have pulled forward demand and created a tougher, and somewhat misleading, comparison point for 2025.

But Quebec is not alone.

The Atlantic region—despite outperforming much of the country earlier this year—recorded single-digit sales declines across the board in October. Alberta and Manitoba also moved into negative territory for the month, adding to the sense that softness is broadening. Nationally, new light-vehicle sales reached 159,000 units in October, down 1.8% from 162,000 in October 2024. Year-to-date, the market has reached 1.63 million units, up 3.9% versus last year, but the monthly results suggest that momentum is fading as the year closes.

The challenge facing analysts and industry planners is the highly uneven nature of the market. U.S.–Canada trade uncertainty, GDP slippage, unexpected employment shifts, pricing turbulence, and evolving ZEV policies are all exerting pressure—often in conflicting directions. This has made regional and segment-level performance more volatile than usual.

“Provincial level sales performances can vary significantly depending on market conditions, but the segment level is where the market is most vulnerable to changing market dynamics and where market disruptions can be felt most keenly,” said Andrew King, Managing Partner at DesRosiers Automotive Consultants.

“Compact car sales, as one example, saw a significant drop in October despite seeing strong growth throughout much of the year.”

While King notes that October 2025, in isolation, was “a solid sales month, just one that ran up against a difficult comparable,” the broader takeaway is that the market is entering a turbulent period—one where year-over-year comparisons are increasingly strained and regional soft spots are becoming harder to ignore.

As 2025 heads into its final stretch, the data points in one direction: the shine of last year’s late-cycle surge has worn off, and the numbers now reflect a market adjusting downward from an artificially elevated high.