For independent shop owners, the health of your business is tied far more closely to the used vehicle market than to new vehicle sales — and the latest data suggests both opportunity and caution ahead.

From giving expert advice to customers, pre-sale service, pre-purchase inspections, safety and certification activities–and of course the more than occasional actual vehicle sale–independent aftermarket service providers are inextricably linked to used car sales activity.

New research from the Used Car Dealers Association of Ontario (UCDA) and DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC) highlights ongoing supply pressures in Canada’s used vehicle market. While that presents challenges for dealers, it has direct downstream implications for the independent service sector.

“The used vehicle market remained highly dynamic in 2025,” said Andrew King, Managing Partner at DAC. “Beyond the obvious pressures of the trade conflict between Canada and the USA, the market was buffeted by the echoes of low sales volumes of new vehicles in 2020–23, the severely decreased supply of off-lease vehicles, and shifting immigration policies.”

For shop owners, that “dynamic” market translates into tighter used vehicle supply — and tighter supply keeps prices elevated. High used vehicle prices can be a positive: consumers are more inclined to maintain and repair vehicles they’ve paid a premium to acquire. At the same time, older vehicles staying in service longer can mean customers are more cost-conscious and increasingly selective about which repairs they authorize.

According to the cross-Canada report, franchised new vehicle dealers continue to sell roughly double the used vehicle volume of independent used dealers. Still, both groups are optimistic about 2026, projecting more than a 15 per cent year-over-year increase in used sales. That signals continued turnover in the parc — and continued opportunity for independent shops to capture post-warranty service work.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) remain a modest but growing part of the used mix. The majority of dealers in both groups reported selling no BEVs at all in 2025.

However, 34.7 per cent of franchised dealers said BEVs represented 1–5 per cent of their used sales, with 21.1 per cent of independents reporting the same range. For shop owners, this suggests electrification in the used market is coming — but gradually.

Sourcing remains the biggest pressure point. More than half (52.0 per cent) of franchised dealers and 48.2 per cent of independents reported worsening sourcing conditions over the past six months. However, a sizable minority reported stability or even improvement, pointing to a market that is constrained — but not collapsing.

Where dealers source vehicles also matters. Franchised dealers obtain 65.4 per cent of their used inventory directly from consumers, while independents rely heavily on auctions (50.6 per cent).

The bigger picture is clear: a balanced used vehicle market supports a healthy service ecosystem. Strong new vehicle sales feed future used supply. Adequate used supply keeps consumers mobile. And a steady flow of out-of-warranty vehicles forms the backbone of independent aftermarket service demand.

The challenge? Managing customer expectations in an environment where vehicle prices — new and used — remain elevated. As vehicles age and repair complexity increases, shops will need to focus on communication, transparency and value. High vehicle replacement costs may push motorists to repair rather than replace — but only if they trust the shop and understand the long-term benefit.

In short, while dealers grapple with sourcing and inventory constraints, independent shop owners should view the current used market conditions as cautiously constructive. Elevated used prices, improving sales projections for 2026 and a slowly diversifying powertrain mix all point to continued demand for professional, independent automotive service across Canada.