Canada’s independent aftermarket relies heavily on an older vehicle population and the current dynamics dominating new vehicle sales point to continuing strength for the aftermarket’s core vehicle population.

According to DesRosiers Automotive Consultants, June 2025 brought a mix of regional performances in new light vehicle sales, offering aftermarket businesses valuable clues about future service demand.

While national sales rose 5.3% year-over-year to an estimated 178,000 units for the month—and 5.6% for the first half of the year, reaching 976,000 units—this growth, though solid, is not expected to dramatically expand Canada’s overall vehicles in operation (VIO) in the short term.

Canada’s VIO has remained relatively stable, hovering around 26.7 million passenger cars and light trucks since 2020.

Despite recent sales gains, industry analysts suggest that the pace of new vehicle additions is being offset by slower vehicle turnover, longer ownership cycles, and limited inventory recovery.

Western Canada showed signs of stagnation, with British Columbia posting just a 0.3% increase and Manitoba slipping by 0.2%. These figures suggest minimal impact on VIO growth in those provinces.

In contrast, Ontario’s 7.4% sales surge and the double-digit first-half growth seen in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada point to stronger fleet expansion in those regions—potentially driving higher aftermarket demand over the next few years.

Quebec’s market continues to underperform, with only a 0.7% increase in June and barely positive growth for the first half. This sluggish pace implies that Quebec’s VIO may remain flat or grow slowly, limiting opportunities for aftermarket businesses unless offset by aging vehicle maintenance needs over the near term.

According to DesRosiers Automotive Consultants’ Andrew King, the divergence in provincial performance is notable, with Alberta and smaller provinces outpacing larger markets like Ontario, BC, and Quebec. While national sales are expected to continue recovering toward pre-pandemic levels, the overall impact on VIO will be gradual rather than explosive.

For aftermarket shop owners, this means planning for steady—not sudden—increases in serviceable vehicle volume. Regions with stronger sales momentum may see more pronounced growth in repair and maintenance demand, while others may rely more heavily on aging fleets and long-term ownership trends to sustain business.